Fossil CO2 emissions decrease by 0.4% in 2026
Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to drop by 0.4% in 2026, largely due to the expansion of renewable energy and geopolitical energy shocks. However, total emissions continue to rise due to land-use changes, and current reduction rates remain insufficient to meet climate goals.
Why it matters
It provides a critical update on the global carbon budget and the efficacy of current clean energy transitions against climate change targets.
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict – according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year.
Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9% – likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.
While global energy demand continues to rise, two thirds of the increase is being met by increased solar and wind power and electric vehicles.
However, the report – published alongside a new paper in the journal Nature Climate Change – finds that clean energy growth is not yet fast enough for a durable decline in global fossil CO2 emissions.
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