Fossil CO₂ emissions projected to decrease in 2026 amid clean energy growth and Iran conflict
A new report from the Global Carbon Project projects a 0.4% decrease in fossil CO2 emissions for 2026, driven by clean energy growth and energy shocks from the Iran conflict. Despite this, total emissions remain high, and current clean energy adoption is insufficient to meet climate goals.
Why it matters
This research provides critical data on global progress toward the 1.5°C warming limit, illustrating the tension between energy demand and environmental sustainability.
edited by Sadie Harley , reviewed by Robert Egan
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Add to Preferred Sources Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026—driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict—according to new research by the Global Carbon Project. The 2026 edition (the 21st annual report) is published in the journal Earth System Science Data .
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion metric tons of fossil carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions this year. Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9%—likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.
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