What National wins and loses from the overhang

<p>Did New Zealand just witness a first-past-the-post election under MMP?</p> <p><b>By Richard Shaw for The Conversation</b></p> <p>There was a time when elections were determined by results in a handful of marginal electorates. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, however, overall voter support for individual parties has been the deciding factor.</p> <p>This year, the old days seem to have returned. The outcome could well hinge on a small number of close-run seats – just like pre-proportional elections used to.</p> <p>Put aside questions about who will hold the balance of power when final results are announced on November 27, or whether Christopher Luxon will go back on his word and <a href="https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/11/10/opportunitys-wong-meets-luxon-and-hipkins-what-we-know-so-far/" target="_blank">negotiate with the Opportunity Party</a> if he has to.</p> <p>Deeper down, the tectonic plates of New Zealand politics are drifting.</p> <h2>Rumblings in the electoral system</h2> <p>The next parliament is going to be the largest in history.