Disproportional representation: What National wins and loses from the overhang
New Zealand's political landscape is shifting due to the emergence of large 'overhang' seats in parliament, which distort the proportional representation system. This development has led to a situation where the seat distribution no longer aligns perfectly with the popular vote, mirroring issues from the pre-MMP era.
Why it matters
The structural integrity of New Zealand's electoral system is being tested, potentially impacting the formation of future governments and public trust in democratic outcomes.
Did New Zealand just witness a first-past-the-post election under MMP?
There was a time when elections were determined by results in a handful of marginal electorates. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996 , however, overall voter support for individual parties has been the deciding factor.
This year, the old days seem to have returned. The outcome could well hinge on a small number of close-run seats - just like pre-proportional elections used to.
Put aside questions about who will hold the balance of power when final results are announced on 27 November, or whether Christopher Luxon will go back on his word and negotiate with the Opportunity Party if he has to.
Deeper down, the tectonic plates of New Zealand politics are drifting.
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