IMF lifts 2026 global growth forecast as AI boom offsets war hit
The IMF has slightly increased its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, citing the positive economic impact of AI-related investments. Despite this, the organization warned that global economic resilience is nearing its limits due to geopolitical tensions and inflation.
Why it matters
The report provides a critical economic outlook, balancing the optimism surrounding AI productivity against the risks of ongoing global conflicts.
BANGKOK — The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for global growth this year as the AI-driven investment boom helps offset some of the impact from surging energy costs, while warning that economic resilience could be nearing its breaking point.
The IMF expects the global economy to grow at 3.1% in 2026, up from the 3% projected in July , but slower than the 3.5% rate last year. For 2027, it kept the forecast unchanged at 3.4%.
The UN agency expects inflation at 4.1% in 2027, above the 3.9% it projected in July – when it estimated the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by mid-July, with conditions broadly returning to pre-war levels by March 2027. For the current year, it maintained its 4.7% outlook.
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