AI investment props up global growth, but war and debt threaten outlook, IMF says
The IMF has slightly raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent, citing strong investment in artificial intelligence as a key driver. However, the organization warned that mounting debt and geopolitical conflicts continue to pose significant risks to the global economic outlook.
Why it matters
This report provides a critical health check on the global economy, highlighting how AI infrastructure is currently acting as a buffer against broader geopolitical instability.
The IMF is forecasting 2026 global growth at 3.1 per cent, a slight uptick from the 3.0 per cent it predicted in July.
The logo of the 2026 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings at Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Thailand, on Oct 9, 2026. (Photo: Reuters/Athit Perawongmetha)
BANGKOK: The global economy will still manage to top 3 per cent real GDP growth this year as strong AI investment offsets the energy shock from the war in the Middle East, but downside risks are mounting and more countries are being left behind and vulnerable to rising debt loads, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
Despite a more protracted conflict that has kept oil prices above US$100 a barrel , the IMF is forecasting 2026 global growth at 3.1 per cent, a slight uptick from the 3.0 per cent it predicted in July.
Also covering this story
One other newsroom covered this event. We read that version too.
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in