YouGov MRP shows Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow

YouGov’s first MRP model since Andy Burnham entered Downing Street projects that, if an election were being held tomorrow, Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, though would likely need the help of at least two additional parties to form a majority in the House of Commons.

The central projection of our latest model, which uses data from nearly 17,000 Britons in fieldwork from 23 August to 18 September 2026, shows Labour on 241 seats, substantially down from the 411 the party won in the 2024 election (a net loss of 170) and 85 seats short of the 326 required for an overall majority. Nonetheless, these figures do represent a significant recovery from this time last year, when our MRP’s central estimate showed Keir Starmer’s Labour leading in just 144 seats .