With bombing campaign unlikely to change Iran’s posture according to US intel, Trump faces limited options - CNN
US intelligence assessments suggest that current bombing campaigns against Iran are unlikely to change the country's negotiating posture. President Trump faces a difficult decision between escalating military involvement or accepting a volatile status quo that threatens regional stability.
Why it matters
The ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and potential escalation with Iran pose significant risks to global energy security and US foreign policy objectives.
Two weeks into a renewed bombing campaign against Iran, with US forces taking casualties and allies wary of the conflict escalating further, President Donald Trump insists that Iran is “desperate” to find an end to wave after wave of US attacks. But both the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency have recently assessed that the kind of bombing the US is currently carrying out is unlikely to shift the Iranian negotiating position, according to two US officials familiar with the assessments. At the same time, the key mediator between the two sides — Qatar — threatened to walk away from the table after Iran struck a Qatari tanker earlier this month, in what would amount to a devastating and possibly irreplaceable loss for diplomatic efforts, according to a current and a former US official.
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