With a Better Understanding of Physics, We Could Predict Volcanic Eruptions
Volcanologists are leveraging advancements in machine learning and sensor technology to improve the accuracy of volcanic eruption forecasting. While still not as precise as weather forecasting, the field has made significant progress since the 1991 Pinatubo eruption.
Why it matters
Improving the ability to predict volcanic activity is critical for disaster mitigation and saving lives in high-risk regions.
The original version of this story appeared in Quanta Magazine.
The eruption killed more than 800 people, mainly because roofs, weighed down by rain-saturated ash, collapsed. But it could have been so much worse: About 250,000 people, across multiple cities and a sprawling US Air Force base, lived in the volcano’s shadow. When Pinatubo started convulsing and belching steam in April of that year, scientists from the US and the Philippines deployed an array of instruments that tracked the volcano’s inner tumult.
“We didn’t know much about that volcano, and so there was this really rapid geological assessment. And the assessment said, ‘Oh, crap, when this thing erupts, it only erupts big,’” says Mike Poland, current scientist in charge at the US Geological Service’s Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. “And that became the basis for a forecast.”
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