Will AI kill us all
This article explores the evolving expert and public sentiment regarding the existential risks posed by advanced artificial intelligence. It highlights that while researchers have increased their estimates of catastrophic risk, forecasters remain more skeptical, and major AI companies continue to balance safety concerns with rapid model deployment.
Why it matters
Understanding the perceived risks of AI is critical for policymakers and the public as these technologies accelerate toward human-level capabilities.
Probably not, but nobody can rule it out, and the people who build AI worry more than they did a few years ago.
Nobody can measure this risk. Every number below is someone's judgment, and the answer changes with who is asked and how the question is worded. One survey shows both. In December 2024, AI Impacts asked 1,580 researchers who publish at top AI conferences for the chance of "future AI advances causing human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species." The median answer was 10%, up from 5% a year earlier. The same researchers put a median of 5% on the chance that human-level AI turns out "extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)" in the long run, the same answer as in every edition since 2016 ( AI Impacts ).
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