Why Ol Kalou by-election is a referendum for Ruto and Gachagua in Central
The parliamentary by-election in Ol-Kalou is being viewed as a critical test of political influence between Kenyan President William Ruto and his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua. The outcome in this Mt Kenya region seat is expected to signal the political trajectory for the 2027 general election.
Why it matters
The result will determine the strength of the ruling coalition's control over the country's largest voting bloc following a high-profile political fallout.
President William Ruto and Ex-DP Rigathi Gachagua/FILE
Today's Ol-Kalou parliamentary by-election has effectively become a referendum on who between President William Ruto and his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua commands the Mt Kenya voting bloc.
The outcome, expected later today, is widely seen as an early indicator of the political mood in the vote-rich region ahead of the 2027 general election.
Following the 2026 mass voter registration, Mt Kenya region has approximately 6.3 million registered voters, making it the country's largest regional voting bloc.
The region comprises 10 counties — Kiambu, Murang'a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Laikipia and Nakuru.
Both Kenya Kwanza and the opposition have invested heavily in the campaigns, turning the race into one of the most closely watched by-elections in recent years.
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