Why limited war with the US may suit Iran better than peace
The article explores the strategic rationale behind Iran's recent limited military engagements with the US. It suggests that Tehran may prefer controlled confrontation over a ceasefire to avoid economic isolation and maintain leverage in regional energy markets.
Why it matters
Understanding Iran's strategic calculus is essential for predicting regional stability and the future of global energy prices.
Image source, Anadolu via Getty Images Image caption, Hostilities between the two countries have flared up again in recent days
At first glance, Iran's surprise missile strike on a US base in Jordan earlier this week appeared difficult to explain. The attack effectively ended the fragile pause in direct US-Iran fighting and prompted Washington to resume strikes inside Iran. It was also unusual.
If Tehran's priority had been a ceasefire, the strike is difficult to explain. But if Iranian leaders judge that a controlled confrontation could offer greater strategic leverage, the decision becomes more understandable.
One possible explanation is that Tehran believes that, despite its risks, a limited war serves its interests better.
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