Why isn't the U.S. better at soccer?
Nate Silver analyzes the U.S. men's national soccer team's prospects ahead of the upcoming World Cup hosted in North America. Despite the historical trend of host nations performing well, statistical models suggest the U.S. has a low probability of reaching the semifinals.
Why it matters
The article highlights the ongoing gap between the U.S. men's soccer program and global powerhouses, reflecting on the country's struggle to translate domestic interest into elite international success.
Nate Silver Jun 07, 2026 92 9 5 Share Landon Donovan after scoring the winner against Algeria in 2010. Getty Images. The World Cup kicks off on Thursday, and we hope our World Cup predictions page will give you everything you need to follow the tournament. We’re monitoring injuries and friendlies as our model makes last-minute adjustments. And we’ll update the forecast after each match day to show you how the games affect everyone’s advancement and championship odds.
The analysis relies on statistical modeling and historical data rather than partisan political commentary.
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