Where Republicans are playing offense ahead of the midterms

The outcome of the 2026 election will be determined primarily by how well Republicans play defense across the growing list of GOP-held House and Senate seats Democrats are targeting. But the GOP is also hoping to play offense by flipping some House and Senate seats Democrats now control. Because of their redistricting maneuvers, Republicans have more opportunities to flip House seats held by the other side than is typical for the president’s party in midterm elections. In the Senate, Republicans are seriously targeting four Democratic-held seats. But in both chambers, the same collapse in President Donald Trump’s approval rating that is threatening so many GOP incumbents is dimming the party’s prospects of unseating many Democrats. The Republican financial advantage is large enough that the party can afford to force Democrats to commit resources defending seats they now hold — which is itself a benefit for the GOP.