What the US-Venezuela oil model could mean for Iran’s energy future
The article examines the complexities of fuel smuggling in Iran, noting that official claims of 20 million liters smuggled daily lack transparent supporting data. It highlights the challenges of balancing domestic consumption, subsidies, and economic leakage in the Iranian energy sector.
Why it matters
Understanding the scale of fuel smuggling is critical for analyzing Iran's economic stability and the effectiveness of its energy policies.
Iranian officials repeatedly say around 20 million liters of fuel are smuggled out of the country every day, costing Iran between $4 billion and $5.2 billion a year. But the figure is far less precise than it is often presented.
Official statements generally refer to “fuel,” not gasoline alone, and include diesel and other petroleum products. In July 2026, Keramat Veys-Karami, head of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company (NIOPDC), said gasoline was less vulnerable to smuggling than diesel and identified transport allocations as a major source of leakage.
The government has not published the refinery, depot, tanker, customs and station-level data needed to show that 20 million liters physically disappear from the regulated system each day. Without a product-by-product balance, the figure cannot be treated as a measured flow of smuggled gasoline.
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