What happens when AI starts gambling on soccer?
A startup called Obside tested various AI models by having them bet on World Cup soccer matches using real-time odds. The experiment serves as a benchmark for evaluating how well AI models can process information and exercise judgment under uncertainty.
Why it matters
This provides a novel way to measure AI reasoning capabilities beyond standard benchmarks, testing their ability to synthesize real-world data for predictive outcomes.
A Brazil supporter cheers ahead of a World Cup rmatch against Japan in Houston. Reuters A version of this story originally appeared in the BI Tech Memo newsletter. Sign up for the weekly BI Tech Memo newsletter here . How do you measure whether an AI is actually good at predicting the future? The CTO of startup Obside emailed me recently with a fascinating real-world benchmark. Instead of giving AI models another standardized test, Obside had ChatGPT , Gemini, Claude, Grok, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Kimi bet on World Cup matches using live Polymarket odds. An hour before kickoff, each model goes into agent mode, researches the teams, injuries, and other public information, then decides how much of its virtual $10,000 bankroll to wager.
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