We checked 6 years of bitcoin data. The NFP report isn't big price mover
An analysis of six years of data reveals that the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report has little immediate impact on Bitcoin price volatility. Despite the report's importance to traditional markets and Fed policy, Bitcoin's intraday price movements on NFP days are statistically indistinguishable from non-NFP days.
Why it matters
This challenges the common assumption among crypto traders that major macroeconomic data releases serve as reliable catalysts for short-term Bitcoin price swings.
It’s the first Friday of the month again and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, a key gauge closely watched by Fed policymakers and both traditional finance and crypto markets. But past data shows its a non-event for day traders.
The data due at 08:30 ET is expected to show that the economy added 56,000 jobs, a rebound from July's surprise loss of 23,000 jobs, according to FactSet . The unemployment rate, however, is seen ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 3% year-on-year, down from July's 3.2%, suggesting wage growth is cooling.
Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month. A stronger-than-expected report could strengthen those odds, push the dollar higher, creating a headwind for bitcoin.
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