Wall Street Sees Inflation Easing Even With Oil Above $90

Economists expect U.S. inflation metrics to moderate in September despite high oil prices, potentially reducing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Core inflation is projected to remain stable, suggesting that energy price shocks have not yet significantly impacted broader consumer goods.
Why it matters
Market expectations regarding inflation and interest rates are critical for investment strategies and the broader U.S. economic outlook.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index CPI report is due to be released on Wednesday, with economists predicting that key inflation metrics continued to moderate in September despite elevated oil prices, giving the Fed room to slow down on interest rate hikes. For September, economists expect headline inflation growth to clock in at 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6%- 3.7% year-over-year, up from 0.4% m-o-m and 3.4% Y/Y in August. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is seen climbing 0.2% in September, down from August's 0.3%, with the annual core inflation rate expected to hold steady at 2.4%. Additionally, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the upcoming October 2728 meeting has dropped to around 19% to 20%, down significantly from over 70% in late September.
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