US tariffs have returned as the biggest risk to EIU’s global trade outlook
The Economist Intelligence Unit identifies US trade policy and protectionist tariffs as the primary risk to the global trade outlook. While AI-driven demand for semiconductors supports growth, new Section 301 tariffs are creating significant market volatility.
Why it matters
Shifting US trade policies and the reinstatement of tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and impact international economic stability.
Article tags Forecasting Supply chains Trade Global United States
US trade policy has returned as the most important risk to EIU’s global trade outlook, eclipsing the disruptions posed by the war in Iran. The breakdown of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran in July has reintroduced near-term risks, including higher energy prices, elevated insurance premiums, and longer transit times for ships. Disruptions to most non-energy trade, however, remain localised.
Instead, strong global demand tied to artificial intelligence (AI) is keeping a floor under non-energy trade growth. This is particularly true in Asia, where exports remain disproportionately concentrated on shipments of semiconductors and other electronics. As a result, our bullish outlook remains anchored by the AI upcycle, even as we expect underlying momentum behind AI demand to cool later in 2026.
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