US study flags hurricane rapid intensification, may give 5-day warnings
Atmospheric scientists have developed a new statistical model that can predict the rapid intensification of hurricanes up to five days in advance. By analyzing 55 environmental factors, this tool aims to provide coastal communities with more time to prepare for severe weather events.
Why it matters
Improved early warning systems for hurricanes are critical for disaster preparedness, potentially saving lives and reducing property damage in vulnerable coastal regions.
Coastal communities across the Atlantic could soon receive life-saving warnings up to five days before a hurricane rapidly strengthens, after atmospheric scientists developed a statistical tool that analyses 55 environmental and storm-related factors.Led by researchers at the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR), the team created a prediction model using logistic regression to estimate the chances that a tropical cyclone will suddenly become much stronger.The study, published in the journal Weather and Forecasting under the title An Ensemble-Based Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction Tool for Extended Lead Times, was co-authored by scientists from the University at Albany, State University of New York, and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.Longer warning times for coastal communitiesRapid intensification happens when a hurricane's maximum sustained winds increase by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) within 24 hours.
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