US midterms: Is Trump about to lose control of Congress? What betting markets say
Betting markets indicate that the Democratic Party has a high probability of winning control of the House of Representatives and a moderate chance of taking the Senate in the upcoming US midterm elections. These projections suggest a potential shift in power that could impact the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency.
Why it matters
Predictive markets are increasingly used as a barometer for political outcomes, reflecting shifting voter sentiment ahead of major legislative elections.
With just a week left for the US midterm elections, betting markets suggest that President Donald Trump's Republican Party could lose control of Congress. Democrats have strong chances to win the House of Representatives, while the race for the Senate remains tighter.According to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, Democrats have a roughly 90% chance of taking control of the House of Representatives. Their chances of winning the Senate are lower, at around 65%.The November 3 elections will decide which party controls the two chambers of Congress for the remaining two years of Trump's presidency. Republicans currently control both, giving the president an advantage in pushing through his policies.House: Democrats ahead in betting marketsAll 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election on November 3.
Also covering this story
One other newsroom covered this event. We read that version too.
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in