Ukraine’s Long Shot
Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have caused fuel shortages, but the author argues that this is unlikely to trigger mass protests against the war. Drawing on historical context, the piece explains how Russian citizens are conditioned to endure scarcity and inconvenience.
Why it matters
It provides insight into the resilience of the Russian home front and the limitations of economic pressure as a tool for political change.
The country may have hoped that deeper drone attacks would cause Russians to protest the war, but mass demonstrations don’t look likely.
Natalia Kolesnikova / AFP / Getty August 15, 2026, 7 AM ET Share Save This summer, Ukraine began one of the most ambitious campaigns of its war with Russia. It launched drones deep into Russian territory, hitting some of the country’s biggest oil refineries and causing a nationwide fuel shortage. In some areas, Russians have waited for gas for as long as 69 hours , in lines stretching miles . Impatient drivers have beaten and stabbed one another. Even state-controlled media have acknowledged the problem.
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