TNAU forecast predicts normal northeast monsoon rainfall in Tamil Nadu
The Tamil Nadu Agricultural University forecasts normal northeast monsoon rainfall for the state, predicting approximately 468 mm between October and December. The university has provided specific agricultural advisories to help farmers manage water resources and soil moisture during potential wet and dry spells.
Why it matters
Accurate monsoon forecasting is critical for the agricultural economy of Tamil Nadu, directly impacting food security and farmer livelihoods.
Tamil Nadu is expected to receive normal northeast monsoon rainfall (October to December) of about 468 mm, a little more than the long-time average of 464 mm, the forecast by Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU), Coimbatore, states.
The university has prepared the forecast at 60% probability level using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST), utilising as inputs, the values of Pacific and Indian Oceans during July -August calibrated with Australian Rainman International V.4.3 Software.
The State recorded 254 mm during the southwest monsoon (June–September) 2026 against the normal 292 mm, reflecting a 13% deficit as September 22.
The northeast monsoon, the forecast states, is expected to provide partial relief, improving soil moisture, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge.
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