This year’s El Niño-driven heat could cause nearly half a million more deaths, group says

This year's powerful El Niño and the record global heat it's driving, along with severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water supplies, could lead to nearly half a million more deaths worldwide by the end of February, according to a research report released Wednesday (September 23, 2026).

The grim warning by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab says that as many as 451,000 more heat-related deaths between June and the end of February could be attributed to El Niño, compared with heat deaths expected in a typical year.

The heaviest toll, the group says, is expected in poorer countries, already struggling with food insecurity and high energy costs, partly due to climate change and the fallout of the war in Iran.