This year’s El Niño-driven heat could cause nearly half a million more deaths, group says
A new report from the Climate Impact Lab warns that El Niño-driven heat could cause nearly half a million additional deaths by February 2027. The study highlights that poorer regions with less access to cooling and healthcare are at the highest risk.
Why it matters
This research underscores the severe human cost of climate change and the widening health inequality between wealthy and developing nations.
This year's powerful El Niño and the record global heat it's driving, along with severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water supplies, could lead to nearly half a million more deaths worldwide by the end of February, according to a research report released Wednesday (September 23, 2026).
The grim warning by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab says that as many as 451,000 more heat-related deaths between June and the end of February could be attributed to El Niño, compared with heat deaths expected in a typical year.
The heaviest toll, the group says, is expected in poorer countries, already struggling with food insecurity and high energy costs, partly due to climate change and the fallout of the war in Iran.
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