There Gonna Be a Shortage of Everything
The author argues that rapid advancements in AI capabilities, including fluid intelligence and strategic planning, will lead to widespread resource shortages. They predict that the massive demand for AI infrastructure and the inevitable rise of humanoid robotics will strain global supplies of energy, hardware, and manufacturing capacity.
Why it matters
This perspective highlights the potential for AI-driven industrial shifts to cause significant supply chain disruptions across global markets.
The past few months have shown a radical escalation of AI capabilities which forces me to change my expectation for the future.
Firstly we have seen unprecedented evidence of AI having a will of its own, and pursuing long-horizon strategic objectives. The AIs that took part in the Hugging Face hack were not simply finding a shortcut to cheat on the evaluations, they:
Furthermore, ARC-AGI 3, an extremely hard fluid intelligence benchmark, which took 2 years to make, was beaten in 6 months. And by a general-purpose LLM which OpenAI has now released to the public.
And the same model saturates my own benchmark SherlockBench. I.e. it is almost impossible to make a SherlockBench problem which Astra can't solve.
This time last year, it was still unclear if AI could develop their own free will or even have true fluid intelligence. Both of these questions are now clearly answered.
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