The worst chart for bitcoin bulls right now
Market data shows that the S&P 500-to-bitcoin ratio has broken above its 200-week moving average, suggesting that bitcoin may no longer significantly outperform equities as it did in the past. Analysts suggest this indicates bitcoin is maturing as an asset class, making it harder to achieve explosive growth.
Why it matters
This shift challenges the 'superior store of value' narrative for bitcoin and suggests a transition toward more traditional market behavior as institutional adoption increases.
That chart is the S&P 500-to-bitcoin ratio, which measures how much bitcoin it takes to buy the index.
Today it takes roughly 0.12 BTC, down from more than 300 BTC in 2012. The ratio has generally dropped since BTC’s inception in 2010, with the 200-week simple moving average, a barometer of long-term trend, acting as a ceiling. There were brief instances of stocks outperforming BTC, lifting the ratio, but never beyond that average.
In recent weeks, the ratio hasn't just topped the 200-week average, it's established a firm foothold above it, clearly visible on the far right of the chart. The behavior is not isolated to the S&P 500, either. The Nasdaq/BTC ratio is showing the same first-ever crossover above the 200-week average.
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