The VIX of bonds is rising but bitcoin and stocks aren't hearing it yet
Rising volatility in the U.S. Treasury bond market, measured by the MOVE index, is signaling potential financial stress that has yet to impact stock and bitcoin prices. Analysts warn that this bond market turbulence often serves as a leading indicator for broader market instability.
Why it matters
If bond market volatility spills over into equities and crypto, it could trigger a significant global market correction and tighter financial conditions.
Are bitcoin BTC $86,189.36 and U.S. stocks truly calm and poised for more gains, or is this the calm before the storm? That is the question some macro observers are asking.
They point to rising volatility in Treasury notes, which underpin global finance, as an early sign of stress that usually spills over into other markets with a lag.
“The MOVE index is making higher lows while the VIX makes lower highs. The MOVE leads: it flashed turbulence before the VIX in 2022, in 2023, and at the start of the Iran war. Stocks are usually the last to get the message,” Kurt S. Altrichter, wealth manager and writer of the RiskSIGNAL Report, said .
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