The Strongest El Niño Ever
Climate models indicate that the current El Niño event is on track to be the strongest in recorded history. Forecasts suggest sea surface temperature anomalies could reach 3.6C, significantly exceeding the previous record set in 2015-16.
Why it matters
An unprecedented El Niño event could lead to extreme weather patterns, severe global temperature spikes, and significant disruptions to ecosystems and agriculture.
I’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record. 1 Once until today, that is. With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.
The article relies on scientific data and ensemble modeling without injecting political commentary.
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