The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)
This article discusses the concept of link rot and the long-term stability of URLs on the web. It references a 2011 bet regarding whether a specific URL would remain accessible for eleven years.
Why it matters
It highlights the fragility of digital information and the importance of web archiving in maintaining the historical record of the internet.
will go to Bletchly Park Trust if Keith wins, or The Internet Archive if Haughey wins.
"Cool URIs don't change" wrote Tim Berners-Lee in 01999, but link rot is the entropy of the web. The probability of a web document surviving in its original location decreases greatly over time. I suspect that even a relatively short time period (eleven years) is too long for a resource to survive. I would love to be proven wrong.
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