The Economist says Tinubu may retain power despite public discontent, opposition disagrees

President Bola Tinubu may retain office in the 2027 presidential election despite public discontent over insecurity and the economic hardship associated with his administration’s reforms, The Economist has reported. In a report published on October 1, Nigeria’s Independence Day, the British publication identified incumbency, opposition fragmentation, religion, voter turnout and identity politics as factors that could shape the contest. It also noted that the worsening security situation and the effects of the economic reforms could work against Tinubu’s re-election bid. “On the face of it, Mr Tinubu’s cool is surprising,” The Economist wrote, arguing that the president’s apparent confidence did not necessarily reflect widespread satisfaction with his administration but could be explained by Nigeria’s electoral dynamics. “Incumbents, with access to the ruling-party machinery and plentiful cash to dole out goodies, have tended to have an advantage in recent Nigerian elections,” the publication stated.