The data proves it: Bitcoin doesn't care about rising bond yields over long-term
Analysis of market data suggests that Bitcoin's price performance is largely uncorrelated with rising U.S. Treasury bond yields. The report argues that Bitcoin functions as an alternative asset rather than a traditional interest-rate-sensitive investment.
Why it matters
Understanding the correlation between crypto and traditional macro assets is crucial for institutional investors managing portfolio risk.
Yields snapped back into focus Wednesday. The U.S. 10-year jumped 15 basis points to its highest level since 2007, topping 5.13%, and pulled yields higher across the globe, as the feature image shows.
The standard interpretation is that as yields climb, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold rises, potentially pulling money toward bonds instead. In short, it’s a headwind, not a tailwind, for crypto.
That logic makes sense on paper. But correlations don't back it up.
The 90-day correlation between bitcoin's daily returns and the U.S. 10-year yield's daily moves is just −0.18, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk. That's close to zero and almost indistinguishable from no relationship at all.
Longer windows show the same thing, with the 180-day correlation at −0.06 and the 1-year figure at −0.03. Bitcoin is equally uncorrelated to yields of other nations.
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in