Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets
Climate experts are expressing concern over the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to bet on weather events and climate outcomes. Critics argue that 'gamifying' disasters could have negative societal impacts and distort public perception of climate risks.
Why it matters
The financialization of climate events raises ethical questions about the intersection of gambling, market speculation, and environmental policy.
A Kalshi ad in Manhattan, New York, in June 2026. A Kalshi ad in Manhattan, New York, in June 2026. US news Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets Climate experts warn US Kalshi and Polymarket users are ‘gamifying disasters’ as they bet on events like heatwaves and daily temperatures
Oliver Milman Wed 2 Sep 2026 11.00 EDT Last modified on Wed 2 Sep 2026 11.01 EDT Share Prefer the Guardian on Google Online prediction markets, saturated by money staked on sport, crypto and politics, have now set their sights on a promising new area of growth: betting on the future livability of the planet itself.
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