‘Super El Niño’ projected to cause 15,800 additional heat deaths in India, says report

India could see an estimated 15,800 additional heat-related deaths, give or take 1,600, between September 2026 and February 2027, as the current ‘Super El Niño’ drives unusually high temperatures, according to a report made public on Wednesday (September 23, 2026) by the Climate Impact Lab. The estimate is relative to average conditions during the corresponding months from 1996-2025.

Globally, the report projects 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during the first six months of the El Niño event, including 239,000 during the September 2026-February 2027 period. It projects 19,300 deaths in Indonesia; 19,400 across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia; 13,300 in Brazil; and 66,800 across the Sahel, a 5,000-kilometre swathe of about 10 countries across Africa, including Senegal, the Gambia, and northern Nigeria.