Stormy autumn, cold winter - how might El Niño affect the UK weather?
The UK Met Office warns that a strong El Niño event developing in the Pacific could lead to a wetter and stormier autumn and winter for the UK. While impacts are not guaranteed, the unprecedented scale of this event suggests a higher risk of flooding and transport disruption.
Why it matters
Climate-driven weather patterns have significant economic and safety implications for infrastructure and public planning.
Image caption, Whilst no two events are the same, the current developing El Niño could mean a greater chance of stormy autumn weather in the UK. File image of Storm Herminia which hit the UK in January 2025
El Niño is developing right now across the Pacific Ocean - thousands of miles away from the UK.
Its most profound impacts may well be centred around this area, with the increased risk of flooding and landslides in Peru and Ecuador and the threat of droughts and wildfires in Australia.
However the disruption caused to global wind patterns means the impacts will ripple right across the globe.
And the Met Office says the UK weather is likely to be affected, with the growing chance that autumn and early winter will be wet and stormy.
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