State of the climate: Rapidly developing El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026
A rapidly developing El Niño event is significantly increasing the probability that 2026 will set a new global temperature record. Data from multiple climate monitoring groups indicates that the first half of 2026 has been among the warmest on record.
Why it matters
Understanding climate patterns like El Niño is critical for predicting extreme weather events and long-term global warming trends.
As 2026 passes its halfway point, the world is watching one of the most rapidly intensifying El Niño events in the modern record take shape in the tropical Pacific.
The developing El Niño is boosting expectations for global temperatures, both this year and next.
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, temporarily raising global temperatures and reshaping rainfall and extreme weather around the world.
Carbon Brief’s “ state of the climate” report in April gave 2026 a 19% chance of setting a new global temperature record.
That chance now stands at 35% – a near-doubling in four months – with virtually all of the change driven by ever-stronger El Niño forecasts.
The key findings from the first half of 2026 include:
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