Southern Africa Braces for Mixed Expectations on Rainfall
Climate experts predict below-normal rainfall for much of Southern Africa during the October to December 2026 period due to strengthening El Niño conditions. The report also notes a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which will influence regional weather patterns through early 2027.
Why it matters
Accurate climate forecasting is critical for agricultural planning and food security in regions vulnerable to drought.
Southern Africa is in position to have a rainy season below expectations during the October to December 2026 period, according to the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook forum’s latest report. Climate experts from the SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) formulated the outlook for the 2026 to 2027 period.
“The bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) 2026 period,” the forum outlined after meeting for four days in Swakopmund from 25 to 28 August.
The assessment for the coming rainy season is broken up into various clusters of the southern African context, which identify the varying rainfall scenarios for the oncoming wet season.
The climate scientists at the Swakopmund event considered key oceanic and atmospheric drivers that influence rainfall variability over the SADC region.
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