South Africa faces 1,200 projected heat deaths as Super El Niño intensifies

Ask AI 2 min South Africa could see about 1,200 additional heat deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a Climate Impact Lab projection linked to this year's El Niño.

South Africa could record about 1,200 additional deaths linked to extreme heat between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a new Climate Impact Lab report.

The projection, which has an estimated range of plus or minus 90 deaths, forms part of a wider warning that this year's El Niño could become the strongest on record.

The Climate Impact Lab estimates that 451,000 people globally could die from extreme heat during the first nine months of the El Niño , from June 2026 to February 2027.

Global population-weighted temperature anomaly

The report warns that the climate phenomenon could also contribute to drought, wildfires and flooding as higher temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns affect different regions.