Sir John Curtice: The "Burnham bounce" is real but it's not massive
Political analyst Sir John Curtice confirms that the Labour Party is experiencing a 'Burnham bounce' in popularity following a leadership change. While the party's standing has improved, Curtice notes that the gains are modest and the party still faces significant challenges ahead of a general election.
Why it matters
The analysis provides context on historical polling trends following leadership transitions, helping to manage expectations regarding the impact of new political leadership.
Sir John Curtice: The "Burnham bounce" is real but it's not massive
By Sir John Curtice Professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde The consistent message of the opinion polls since the new prime minister walked into Downing Street almost a fortnight ago is that Labour is enjoying a "Burnham bounce". And this has now been confirmed by the party's convincing victory in Thursday's Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election.
Polls conducted in the last week put Labour on average in the mid 20s. It is the party's highest standing since the beginning of last year and compares to their rating of 19% in late June when Sir Keir Starmer announced he was standing down.
But with Reform polling only narrowly behind Labour, Burnham's party still has a long way to go before it can face the prospect of fighting a general election with confidence.
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