Sir John Curtice: The "Burnham bounce" is real but it's not massive
Political analyst Sir John Curtice examines the recent polling boost for the UK Labour Party following the appointment of a new leader, Burnham. While the 'Burnham bounce' is statistically evident, Curtice notes it is modest and follows a historical trend of new leaders receiving initial popularity spikes.
Why it matters
Understanding polling trends is essential for predicting electoral outcomes and assessing the political health of major parties in the UK.
Sir John Curtice: The 'Burnham bounce' is real but it's not massive
By Sir John Curtice Professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde The consistent message of the opinion polls since the new prime minister walked into Downing Street almost a fortnight ago is that Labour is enjoying a "Burnham bounce". And this has now been confirmed by the party's convincing victory in Thursday's Greater Manchester mayoral by-election.
Polls conducted in the last week put Labour on average in the mid 20s. It is the party's highest standing since the beginning of last year and compares to their rating of 19% in late June when Sir Keir Starmer announced he was standing down.
But with Reform polling only narrowly behind Labour, Burnham's party still has a long way to go before it can face the prospect of fighting a general election with confidence.
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