Ships took advantage of an opening in the Strait of Hormuz. But it may be closing

The Strait of Hormuz has seen more traffic in the last week than it has in the past three months. But that has slowed down Friday as a critical evacuation plan is put on hold. Seventy-three vessels transited the critical waterway on Wednesday, the highest number since shortly after the war with Iran began in late February, according to MarineTraffic. That’s more than double the traffic from Tuesday. The spike in traffic comes after the United States lifted sanctions on Iranian oil earlier this week, part of the ceasefire agreement between the two countries. The United Nations and the International Maritime Organization, or IMO, also launched a humanitarian effort to get 11,000 stranded seafarers and 500 vessels out of the strait. “What we’re seeing are the ships that were sitting in the Gulf for this elongated period of time starting to move out with a focus on humanitarian aid to get the seafarers out and then a couple of chosen tankers when sanctions were lifted,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, who spent half a decade working for a major shipping line the Middle East. “So this is not just a full-fledged green flag, everybody start running through the strait.” Before the war, experts estimate 110 to 160 vessels used to sail through the passage between Iran and Oman daily. Since the fighting choked off the strait, an average of fewer than ten vessels per day have transited the 21-mile passageway. Ship traffic first started to pick up over the weekend as shipping companies became more confident that talks between the US and Iran were progressing. Then on Wednesday, the IMO along with Iran and Oman created two new shipping lanes – one along the northern part of the strait near Iran, and a second in the southern part of the strait, closer to Oman – that were safe from mines and other dangers. Ships were contacted by the (relevant) agencies directly when it was their turn to move. The idea was to move vessel traffic out of the region gradually and under tight controls. However, the IMO paused its evacuation plans Thursday after a vessel was struck in the Gulf of Oman. A US official told CNN the ship was hit in an Iranian drone attack but did not provide further details. Iran has not claimed responsibility. Ship traffic fell roughly in half Friday after Iran warned that ships should not be passing the strait along the Omanian coast and safe passage would be given to ships only via routes declared to Iran. That raised concern of future attacks as ships try to exit or enter the strait close to Oman. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said in a statement he took the precaution of pausing the program even though the vessel that was attacked “did not transit under IMO’s evacuation framework.” For months, shipping companies have been in wait and see mode, carefully calculating the risk of moving ships through the strait. To date, there have been at least 46 strikes on vessels and 14 deaths, according to the IMO. Companies have been hesitant to move cargo and personnel through mine-laden waters under threat of missile strikes. Insurers have dropped coverage on ships because of wartime clauses. Several major shipping companies, like Hapag-Lloyd, have used US naval guides to move through the strait – but that offer has not been consistent. “The ships actually transiting Hormuz this week are still mostly Iranian-flagged and some (Taiwanese) Evergreen ships. The major global carriers haven’t returned yet, so it’s closer to status quo than a real shift,” said Sanne Manders, president of Flexport, a global shipping logistics company. Manders and Seroka expect traffic levels to drop in the coming days during the pause in IMO’s evacuation effort. The IMO plans to “reconfirm that the necessary safety guarantees continue to be in place for the ships on our evacuation list and all those in the region,” Dominguez said.