Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction markets"
A group of US senators has requested that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission crack down on prediction markets that allow betting on wildfires. Lawmakers argue these markets could incentivize arson and minimize the suffering of affected communities.
Why it matters
The intersection of gambling, prediction markets, and public safety raises significant ethical and regulatory questions regarding the limits of speculative markets.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG Senators demand crackdown on wildfire “prediction markets” Fire experts warn such markets could incentivize arson.
12 Credit: Getty Images Credit: Getty Images Text settings Story text Size Small Standard Large Width * Standard Wide Links Standard Orange * Subscribers only Learn more Minimize to nav Several US senators have written a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), inquiring about the agency’s “plans to crack down on prediction markets” that offer “contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires.”
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit,” wrote the group of senators, who represent Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
The document specifically cites that Polymarket hosted bets in January 2025 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, and it mentions another website which specifically accepts “simulated bets” exclusively on California wildfires.
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