Scientists at IAV, Keralam develop dengue early warning system to forecast trends

Scientists at the Institute of Advanced Virology (IAV) in Keralam are developing a dengue forecasting system that integrates epidemiological and weather data on a machine-learning platform to predict dengue incidence trends in advance.

The aim is to help public health managers plan resource allocation and preventive measures proactively, rather than responding only after outbreaks occur.

Climate factors are important early warning indicators for dengue because they directly influence the biology of the Aedes mosquito and the replication of the dengue virus.

Warm temperatures accelerate mosquito development, shorten the virus’s extrinsic incubation period—the time required for the virus to become transmissible inside the mosquito—and can increase transmission efficiency. Moderate to high humidity can prolong mosquito survival, while moderate rainfall creates breeding habitats. Torrential rain, however, can flush out mosquito breeding sites.