Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2026

Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operationally significant gains thus far, and Russian forces’ rate of advance in June 2026 is a fraction of the rate of advance that Russian forces achieved in June 2025 . ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized or infiltrated 30.42 square kilometers in June 2026 and advanced or infiltrated at an average pace of 1.01 square kilometers per day. Russian forces comparatively seized 481.25 square kilometers in June 2025, advancing at an average pace of 16.04 square kilometers per day. Russia’s gains have been largely gradual and creeping for over a year, and even Russia’s faster average rate of advance in 2025 was at a foot pace.[1] Russia’s rate of advance has been steadily decreasing since November 2025, and Russian forces have thus far been unable to roll back the successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kupyansk and Oleksandrivka directions from late 2025 and spring 2026.[2] Russian forces’ main territorial gains have been in Russia’s main effort area near Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces have achieved slow tactical gains at high costs in the city’s urban environs.