Russia planning armed incursion into Poland to test Nato's response: Report

Russia could be preparing a limited military incursion into Poland to test Nato's willingness to respond, according to claims reported by the Daily Mail, citing Polish media and sources close to Poland's leadership. The reported scenario would involve a small-scale provocation rather than a full-scale invasion, with the aim of undermining Western support for Ukraine and exposing divisions within the alliance.According to the report, Washington has privately warned Warsaw for some time about the possibility of such a move. Polish news outlet Onet, cited by the Daily Mail, reported that Russian and Belarusian forces could briefly cross into Polish territory or target critical infrastructure with missile or drone strikes in an attempt to trigger a political crisis rather than a conventional war.The warnings come as Nato prepares to formally describe Russia as a "long-term threat" to Euro-Atlantic security at next week's summit, reflecting growing concerns across Europe that Moscow's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine. The latest fears also coincide with one of Russia's deadliest aerial assaults on Kyiv in recent months, underlining the Kremlin's continued military pressure despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.'Limited provocation'According to the Daily Mail, citing Onet, Russian planners are believed to favour a carefully controlled operation that would avoid a full-scale conflict while testing Nato's resolve. Polish security experts reportedly believe a small number of Russian or Belarusian troops could briefly enter Polish territory, with Moscow later claiming it was caused by a navigation error or an emergency helicopter recovery.The report also suggests that missiles or drones could target power stations or other critical infrastructure, forcing Poland to activate its air defence systems. A limited operation could potentially be launched either from Russia's heavily militarised Kaliningrad exclave, which borders northern Poland, or from neighbouring Belarus.Polish sources quoted by Onet reportedly believe the Kremlin assumes the United States would encourage negotiations rather than immediate military escalation, allowing Moscow to present any talks as a strategic victory while pushing for reduced Western military support for Ukraine.Nato hardens stance as Russia escalates attacksThe reported warnings come as Nato leaders prepare to label Russia a "long-term threat" and reaffirm the alliance's collective defence commitments. Member states are also expected to pledge €70 billion in military aid for Ukraine next year while increasing defence spending across Europe.Meanwhile, Russia launched an 11-hour missile and drone assault on Kyiv, killing at least 21 civilians and injuring dozens more, according to Ukrainian authorities. Moscow claimed the strikes were retaliation for recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities, while President Vladimir Putin insisted Russia would continue the war until its objectives were achieved, rejecting calls for a ceasefire.Catch the latest world news and top headlines. Download the TOI App.