RNZ poll: National hits new low under Luxon, Opportunity nears Parliament
A recent poll shows New Zealand's National Party hitting its lowest support levels under Christopher Luxon, while the Opportunity Party is nearing the threshold for parliamentary entry. The current coalition government remains in a precarious position, with minor parties gaining significant momentum.
Why it matters
Shifting polling numbers indicate potential instability for the current government and suggest a possible change in the parliamentary makeup of New Zealand.
National has slumped to its lowest level of support since Christopher Luxon became leader, while the fledgling Opportunity Party has surged to within a whisker of Parliament in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll.
New Zealand First has also continued its upward climb, registering its strongest result in the Reid Research series in nine years.
If replicated on polling day, the results would likely return the current coalition government to power with the narrowest possible majority of 61 seats.
That calculation could change if either National or Te Pāti Māori won more electorates than their party vote entitled them to, causing an over-hang.
Likewise, Parliament's make-up would shift markedly if Opportunity tipped over the five percent threshold.
The poll - published on Tuesday - showed Labour maintaining its hold on the top spot at 34 percent, despite a drop in support of 1.6 points since March.
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