Rising food prices weaken Nigeria’s disinflation gains

Nigeria’s headline inflation eased consecutively in July, but a sharp acceleration in food prices is complicating the country’s disinflation story and limiting the relief households are likely to feel. The headline inflation rate fell to 15.43 percent in July 2026, from 15.91 percent in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The July reading was 0.48 percentage points lower than June and substantially below the 24.94 percent recorded in July 2025. The result was broadly consistent with BusinessDay’s inflation forecast, which had projected headline inflation at 15.51 percent for July. The official figure therefore came in just 0.08 percentage points below the forecast, indicating that the model captured the direction and broad magnitude of the monthly moderation relatively closely. But beneath the headline improvement, food prices moved in the opposite direction.