Projections suggest significant population shrinkage for Latvia over next 25 years
Eurostat projections indicate that many regions along the EU's eastern border, particularly in the Baltic states, will face significant population declines and aging by 2050. The demographic shift highlights an increasingly uneven landscape across the European Union.
Why it matters
Long-term population decline and aging pose severe challenges for labor markets, social security systems, and regional economic viability.
Populations are projected to decline by at least 15% by 2050 in half of the regions along the EU’s eastern border, with the 15 regions within Latvia and Lithuania leading the way. In Estonia, all but one region are projected to shrink by at least 10%. As far as Latvia's regions are concerned, the following projections from 2025 to 2050 apply: Latgale region (-35.6%), Vidzeme (-13.6%), Kurzeme (-18.5%), Zemgale (-19.2%), Rīga (-12.8%). In Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, most regions are projected to see populations declines of at least 15%, while in Finland, Slovakia and Hungary, a majority of regions are also projected to record decreases, generally of more than 10%. By 2050, the average median age in the EU is projected to rise to 50.1 years, an average increase of 3.8 years across all regions.
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