Prediction for Spain vs Argentina in the World Cup: probabilities and who will win the final

The 2026 World Cup will be decided on July 19 at the New York/New Jersey Stadium, where Spain and Argentina will face off in a hugely compelling final between the two teams that have delivered the best performances throughout the tournament. The reigning champion will look to retain the title, while the Spanish national team is chasing its second star sixteen years after winning South Africa 2010. The model reflects complete parity, although it places Spain slightly ahead with a 54.6% chance of being crowned champion, compared with Argentina's 45.4%. Only 32 Elo points separate the two teams (2232 to 2200), the smallest difference in the entire final bracket and an indicator of just how fine the line between them is. Spain has stood out during the tournament for its defensive solidity, while Argentina has once again displayed enormous attacking potential on its way to the final.