Polymarket traders cut Clarity Act passage odds to record low as Senate delay drags on
Polymarket traders have significantly lowered their expectations for the passage of the Clarity Act by the end of 2026 due to Senate delays and unresolved ethics disputes. The bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets by defining the jurisdictions of the SEC and CFTC.
Why it matters
The legislation is critical for the future of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation and the legal clarity required for industry growth.
As of Friday, traders gave the bill a 32% chance of passing by Dec. 31, 2026, down roughly 30 percentage points from when the market launched on Jan. 11. The odds climbed as high as 82% on Feb. 19 but have steadily declined since early May as the Senate's legislative calendar has narrowed and questions have mounted over whether lawmakers can assemble the bipartisan support needed to advance the bill.
The decline comes despite continued negotiations behind the scenes.
Earlier this month, lawmakers were working on an updated legislative text that was expected to be released the following week, though it had yet to win Democratic backing. President Donald Trump was expected to meet with Senate Republicans yesterday to discuss the bill.
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