Play the percentages

South won the opening spade lead with his king and was very pleased with his contract. There were 11 easy tricks provided that the club suit came in for six tricks. That was a sure thing unless the missing clubs split 4-0, so South gave some thought about the best way to play the club suit. Knowing that West had long spades, South judged that East was far more likely to have four clubs than West. Accordingly, South started clubs at trick two by leading a low club to dummy’s ace. He was gob-smacked when East discarded a diamond! There was no longer any way to get to nine tricks. South cashed his eight top winners and settled for down one. South could have done better. It would cost nothing to play the ace and queen of diamonds before starting on clubs. When West shows up with a singleton diamond, the odds would change dramatically. It would be very unlikely that West held a club void in addition to a singleton diamond. South should then start clubs by cashing the king in his hand. When East shows out, South will continue with the 10 of clubs and double finesse West out of the jack and nine of clubs, using the ace of hearts to re-enter his hand if West covers the 10 with the jack.